Maybe. I'll have to think about that one. It doesn't feel like fear to me, but that could be some kind of coping mechanism. From where I sit, I don't believe I fear this AI stuff because I don't really see what all the fuss is about. I don't think I'll be replaced by Claude anytime soon, because fundamentally language models cannot do the things necessary to compete with me. They can generate large amounts of relatively mediocre code quickly, but that's not really what anyone expects of me in the workplace.

Instead, what I do is I think deeply and understand things. And I refine my understanding of those things. And eventually, I have some insight that proves extremely valuable to my employer. Or sometimes not! But on balance it tends to work out swimmingly in their favor. This may sometimes involve writing lots of code, sometimes it involves writing very tiny amounts of code. Sometimes it involves simply deleting code. But the code part of that job is really minimal. It's all the other things--developing understanding, having insights, thinking really hard, making connections, communicating--that are valuable. Banging out code was never a big deal. I'm good at writing clear, correct code and I believe I can do it better than an LLM, if not faster. But that never mattered very much, what actually matters is learning and adapting. I'll be scared when someone makes an "AI" that can do that competitively, but I'm not worried this will happen anytime soon.

So the premises of this "LLM crisis" seem deluded to me. The people saying "everyone will be using an LLM all day every day for their job" seem to have no idea what jobs are like or what LLMs are (in)capable of. The people talking about AI paperclip apocalypses seem like they're having a really bad drug trip. The stock market bros and VCs throwing money as hard as they can after whimsical sci-fi fantasies seem like they've gone completely batshit insane. Meanwhile managers are forcing workers to use LLMs for everything, for no clear reason, and push them into products where it does nothing good. So therefore every little spineless corporate toady is clambering on top of the other little spineless corporate toadies to show big mr manager what a good AI boy they are. It seems like y'all have lost your entire minds because the computer does words now.

It's not fear. It's disgust. I'm disgusted by all of this.

One imagines Lee Sedol telling himself the same thing. True one day and false the next.

It's all the other things--developing understanding, having insights, thinking really hard, making connections, communicating--that are valuable

Spend some time working with frontier models like Fable and Astra. It's clear you haven't. Or if you have, you haven't paid attention to anything but acceptance of the final work product.

"Thinking really hard," LOL. You won't beat an LLM at that. No one ever will again. Insights are still our domain as humans -- if only because the motivations behind them are still entirely ours -- but now we can put those insights into practice at a rate never possible before. And your reaction is disgust?

Meanwhile managers are forcing workers to use LLMs for everything, for no clear reason

I'm with you there. Don't worry, those managers will be the next to go.

How many times have we heard this? If it wasn't true all the other times why must I believe it now?

Here's a challenge: show something impressive. Show me how using your LLM will actually help me do something better. How come if this stuff is so great, it's just not all that obvious? I'm looking around and over the past year or 18mo I'm just not seeing a whole lot of change in software. Maybe increased bugs shipped?

It was true the first time somebody said, "Hey, check out this ChatGPT thing." It blew my socks off. I still haven't found them. I guess they're probably behind the dryer or something.

I'm looking around and over the past year or 18mo I'm just not seeing a whole lot of change in software. Maybe increased bugs shipped?

I think you're just demanding too much too soon. Peoples' workflows are still adjusting. As you said yourself, correctly, management is being stupid about this whole thing.

The improvements won't all be visible at once. I will ship my next hardware product sooner than I would have, because Fable routed a board for me. Specifically, it wrote a Python program to solve a nasty routing problem that I just didn't feel like working on.

This morning, I was pissed because the volume shadow copy program I use for backups, Casper, screwed up a 30-hour job because it had scheduled a task behind my back, without my knowledge, that tried to perform the same backup to the same drive at the same time. Fable figured out what happened; all I knew was that the boot sector on the target drive was hosed. I will avoid that problem in the future by telling Fable or Astra to find me a simple command-line shadow copy utility that doesn't suck, and if no such utility exists, write it from scratch. That will not be a problem for Fable or Astra, but I wouldn't have dreamed of relying on an LLM to do that last year.

Will this win be visible to you, as a consumer? No, because LOL at anybody trying to sell something like that from here on out.

The software that I develop to support the hardware? I rarely work on it anymore, as of a few weeks ago. When I want a new feature added, I ask Claude (or, again, Astra, which is now better than Fable in some respects.) Claude could do a lot of that work last year, but it needed extensive babysitting. Now it has taste. It chooses the controls, lays out the dialog box and writes the help text. You won't notice the details as a consumer, you'll just see more rapid incremental improvements coming out for my software and ultimately the hardware as well.

Speaking of my very-obscure hardware, last week I ran into a very obscure firmware bug in some code I wrote. Or, rather, my customer did. Different customers are demanding both new features and bug fixes, and I only have the bandwidth for one of those. So: "Claude, see if you can figure out why the board stopped responding to input X when input Y went away. Here are the component data sheets." Took it about an hour but it would have taken me longer.

I would like to say I used the time it saved me to work in parallel on new features, but in reality I spent it here instead, arguing with Luddites. They say "you are your calendar," so I guess I enjoy that even more than building new stuff. Funny how much the clankers are teaching me about myself!